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20121031
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intact. for me, the election is a big, big deal. even though it's u.s., not europe f the election is messy, if people get nervous about that oar the fiscal cliff, we'll see the euro fall as money goes back to t bills. >> it's a great point. ri rick, what are you seeing today? >> i'm a little nervous about trying to buy the current selloff in the treasury complex because, of course, itti could t a life of its own. on the other hand, they don't say even though starts and new home sales may be improving, there's still a huge foreclosure buildup that may be sitting on the books in banks. they continue to operate on these assumptions of a range. they believe the euro currency is going to have a hard time getting above 132. they're looking at the dollar/yen in terms of potential. they're also looking at the s&p. when we get within 3 to 5% of the all-time highs, they're looking to fade that move. >> it's interesting. what do you think the next catalyst will be for this market, guys? in terms of what leads investors. we have the election on the horizon. the fundamentals story was supposed
month we saw huge inflows into u.s. stock etfs. $18 billion versus $3 billion in august. in addition to which this entire rally since the end of june has been predicated on multiple expansion. that's positive sentiment. none of this has anything to do with economic growth. because the fact. matter is, it's just not there. profit growth isn't there, either. we're going to be down 2.6%. i think sentiment, actually, is way stronger than what the earnings would suggest it should be. >> scott, give us some takeaways of what people should do here as they look forward earning season. >> well, michele, i think, you know, we're in the second leg of this cyclical bull market. they need to be looking for opportunities to buy consumer discretionary stocks, technology stocks, even material stocks, which have gotten pounded here. i'm looking for continued expansion here in the states. continued expansion globally. people need to be positioned for that. we're going to see economic growth in the u.s., i think at least through 2014. i think the market is going to grind higher over the course of time.
will begin to hook up, but the u.s., if it goes over the fiscal cliff, goes into recession. that's driving volatility for the whole quarter. >> everybody is saying we'll go into recession if we go off the cliff. brian, where are you on that same question? do you want to buy or sell? do you think it continues? >> this is actually towards the lower end of our trading range for the balance of the year. around 1400, that's the low point. maybe we could test down 1371 if we continue to get bad earnings. i don't think this is related to the fiscal live cliff at all. if it was, last night president obama indicated there's no way we're going to go over that, he's not going to let the spending cuts happen. what about the tax increases? the day's numbers i think was more a function of the fundamentals, bad earnings, specifically top-line revenue growth was really slow. >> but how is he going to stop the spending cuts? i didn't understand that from the debate last night. how is he going to stop the spending cuts from going through when that's the law? which, by the way, he signed. it'sautomatic. how
and happen to be in a period where we think there's significant advantages to u.s. based companies but those advantages are being offset to some large extent by a set of policies and regulations and urn certainties on the macro level, much of it in the united states but also obviously global issues that are well known, that create an enormous amount of needed caution in the world. i'm not sure that's going to get resolved until we have significant resolution of where we are in the macro side. >> and of course the election is also a big uncertainty there. >> it certainly is. >> do things get unlocked after november 6th? what's your take on that? and also, well let's talk about the election. what kind of impact do you think after the election, things loosen up? >> i don't agree with the theory that says that its irrelevant who wins that it's just certainty. i don't think this has ever been about just certainty. it's about a set of policies either encourage or allow business growth or set of policies that tend to diminish the ability of our economy to grow to employ people. i think the election
uncertainties. the u.s. elections, the fiscal cliff. you've got some back tracking in europe. and then you've got the leadership transition in china. so i think you're going to have that positive influence, maybe met with a little bit of resistance around some of the unserpt you'll see because of these i vents. we think the markets are higher 15 months from now. >> okay, so even if we do see this volatility you think 15 months from now, are you going to be in a better position? what about that, peter, we've been talking today that the expectations call for a contraction in third quarter earnings. going to see a negative performance from the third quarter, these are the expectations, anyway, to bounce back in the fourth quarter. the market -- really haven't changed very much. >> yes, maria. i think the market is ahead of itself. as the prior speaker said, there's a lot of uncertainty out there. markets have been very strong this year. so some giveback in the fourth quarter is not unexpected by me. i kind of welcome it, because we're stock pickers and that will give us a chance to find some
is eyeing and whether or not foreign money is coming into the u.s. we have henry m henry mcveigh w. tell me what you're hearing. >> the clients with the long-term focus are the ones we traditionally work with. we see opportunities. we have a very big presence in asia. i was just over in hong kong and india. we're finding things to do on the consumer side. i would tell you, i do think the chinese economy in particular, the export economy, is structurally broken. i think that's a big change. i've been going to china since 1995. i think there's a fundamental shift in what's going on. we saw that in the caterpillar numbers. you saw that in the federal express numbers. some people think that's cyclical. i think there's prob a m secular component to it. >> this is a very important point you're making because china's growth has been driven by the export economy. you're saying that it's in trouble, it's broken. >> i'm not saying it's broken. i'm saying there's a transition going on towards consumption exporting to europe and real estate are no longer going to be their drivers nap will probably crea
and readings. the real big drivers are europe and the u.s. elections. in terms of the big moves, we still have a ways to wait. the last big moves were the ecb and the federal reserve. the market ran up on those. that was great news for the market. there's no big bullish driver force right now. that's why we're getting this tentative move. a great chart you showed earlier where it fades. nobody wants to benegative, but they're cautious. >> they are right now. mark, what was the benchmark you're waiting for next week here? >> we have a couple data points i'm looking at. that's reports from the empire and philly fed service manufacturing to see if they corroborate the ism reading we had a week ago. that was above the 50 mark. the boom/bust line, if you will. if that's good, i think that portends good news on stabilization on the domestic front. we also get two reports on housing. once again, seeing the numbers coming out of jpmorgan and wells fargo today, we're seeing affirming information that the housing recovery is hardening and that's good news. frankly, i'm looking at china. i think the poin
a bigger business in the u.s. potentially the u.s. numbers might be better. we'll take a look and see whether the beat is coming from search or display. those numbers are probably better than feared in the marketplace. one thing i'll probably be looking for on the conference call is i don't know if they'll talk about it is asian assets. what they are doing with $4.3 billion they just got back and yahoo! japan stuff. >> yahoo! japan stuff. and earnings are 35 cents a share versus expectation of 25 cents a share. looks like a good beat on the bottom line as well on earnings. what's your take? >> if it's a result of management taking cost out of the operation while they managed to hold revenues in line with expectations, clearly the market will be encouraged by that as you can see right now. we have to go through the number and see how much was attributable to the gain with respect to the sale of the 17% interest. on its face value, 35 cents is a good number. >> it's a good number. major holders. citigroup. fidelity investments. a widely held stock. david what do you want to do if you ow
you. we appreciate it. direct edge handles 10% of u.s. stock volume and trades about 1 billion shares a day, all done electronically. joining me on the phone to talk about that is direct ed's ceo william o'brien. mr. o'brien good to have you on the program. thanks for joining us. >> thank you, maria. >> talk to us about the trading day today. you say there were no disruptions. >> no, i mean i think it's as fairly normal a day as you can expect under the circumstances. i am just so impressed with the preparation, the dedication and the professionalism not only of the direct edge team but the entire industry. it showed today in how smoothly trading was conducted. >> you handle 10% of u.s. stock volume. was it all systems go? >> it was. it was. now our headquarters are in jersey city so we have dedicated, what's called business continuity space to deal with circumstances like this so we operate two stock exchanges and we operate them completely out of our backup space in sicaucus, and from our member's perspective we didn't miss a beat. >> what has the shutdown cost directedge, about $1
surprised and get a much larger, more significant return than you will buying u.s. treasuries. >> gentlemen, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> buy 30-year bonds. >> okay. yeah, there's a treasury auction coming on those as well. so which stocks are being hit the hardest so far this month? >> just today the dow and s&p turned negative on the month. that's the quickest that's happened in a month since july of last year. it's brought a lot of stocks down into the red today with the market's overall spoiler. the most negativity is hitting health care and tech. let's look at the five worst october performers on the whole. the first is striker, down better than 6% in october to date starting the month with the management shake-up. orthopedics president took on the ceo role as well. investors seem to be waiting on the sideline there is. advanced microdevice is down just about 6.5%. pacific crest downgraded the company a week ago citing an inventory correction. next, auto desk down 7%. a couple small deals this month as well as some issues in the field. ubs says it's still a buy following a meeti
by governments and vice versa. they have to, you know, go together. and clearly both in the u.s. and in the eurozone, central bankers are saying, you know, we've done our bit. where are you, governments, with your fiscal measures? and that's what's needed. >> in terms of france, what do you make of the latest policy there in terms of rates, tax rates up to 735% on the highest earnings? is this appropriate? >> i'm afraid i'm going to disappoint you because i won't take up questions on france for obvious reasons. >> because it's your country? >> correct. >> it does seem a little aggressive from a policy standpoint, do you think we could see that kind of tax rates in other countries? i mean, this is a real debate. i understand you don't want to criticize or comment on something going on in france. but you have to be thinking about this. >> well, what we say is that, you know, deficit reductions come two ways. you reduce the public spending or you increase the revenue, meaning you increase the tax. our sense is that, and our studies actually show, that by reducing public spending, y
. we have a statement here from the u.s. attorney saying with today's sentence rajat gupta now must face the sentence of his crime. he hopes others will take heed of what happens here. >> thanks very hutch. now over to julia boorstin. >> i want to point out that even though zynga's revenue grew 3% in the quarter, the bookings, which is the key number wall street analysts pay close attention to, the bookings were down 11% year over year. that puts zynga right in line with expectations. the bookings and earnings were right in line with expectations. digging a little deeper, the average daily bookings per user, so that's the amount the average daily user is spending every day, actually declined 19% year over year. they did see daily active users, the number of people playing grew 10%. >> julia. thank you so much. some huge movers in the after hours trading session. also ahead, aisle talk with raymond james financial ceo. he's speaking with us before jumping on the analyst call. keep it here to find out how things are going in his world. then facebook shares posting the biggest daily ga
to see good growth in the aerospace segment as well as -- and that's kind of a surprise. u.s. automotive continues to perform very, very well. that's good. i mean, heavy trucks and trailers are slowing down, which already shows you there's some jitteriness in the market. that will most likely continue as long as we have things like the eurozone crisis as well as the discussion about the financial cliff overhanging the sentiment. >> your leadership obviously has been complimented. you know, you've got to operate a business regardless of what's going on around you, klaus. so how are you going to offset some of these sticking points like the fact that aluminum prices have been declining, like the fact we are in this global slowdown? everybody wants to negotiation are you going to unlock valuely splitting the company up? >> maria, we are going unlock value with whichever way is the best here. look, i mean, a year ago aluminum prices were at $2,800. guess what? the alcoa stock price was at 18. so we can't deny the fact that we are dependent on where the aluminum price is on the upstream side
a year away from the u.s. economy short-term problemsrelated to the fiscal cliff. we're about a year away from a full rebound in american housing. we started off in 2007 with 8 million unsold homes. we need about 1 million to 1.5 million new homes every year because of family formation, because of replacements and for immigration. over the last five years, we have now brought down that inventory to a more manageable level. in states like texas, you're starting to see rising housing prices. even in counties in california where you had a huge boom in housing. so housing is becoming a better economic engine. presently, we're only building about 500,000 new homes. in a year from now, i expect us to go back to that million new home level, and that's going to create new jobs. second of all, our banks are in great shape. they're in much better shape than the european banks, much better shape than the asian banks. i believe they have a capacity to lend more when there's sufficient demand. three, you know, we have been blessed with incredible amounts of energy. we're the third largest producer of
as the u.s. market. >> doug, we keep talking about the fact that the fed is impacting the markets. what's your take on this? could you give us some quantity of what the s&p 500 would be at if the fed wasn't intervening in the markets. >> you know, i mean, market's at 13 times earnings. it's not like we have some human premium built in because of the fed. the better question is, if you believe what you say, which is the fed's moving the market up, then there's a global conspiracy against people who have their money in cash and bonds. because in the end, central banks around the world are deflating their kucurrency, and there's no worse place to be. >> and i thought the conspiracy was in the jobs number. teasing. >> conspiracies everywhere. >> thanks, guys. >> one final quick point, gang. a lot of people that don't trust the fundamentals still have been long stocks. we're not saying don't be long on stocks. i think stocks continue to go up. but that spread between fundamentals and what stocks are doing, there has to be a day of reckoning. >> got it. thanks, guys. meanwhile, something that
environment. where in the world are you finding that right now? >> well, it was easier to find it in u.s. stocks early in the year. the process we use with the allocation strategy funds that i manage is to do those three things. we still think the valuations are quite reasonable. but the thing that i'm worried about now is the macro side, that second part. the issue that we've had, we know the economic data has been weaker, and i think what most investors are doing is waiting on the sideline to see just what impact that slowing macro data is going to have on corporate earnings in the third quarter. >> you see the slow down coming or continuing right now, and a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. nobody is doing anything. >> i think that's right. i don't think there's a lot of getting people to step in. the good news for this market and one of the reasons i'm not overly negative is that we're starting to -- we think that valuations are good and that companies have been managing very conservatively. they're also doing a very good job in guiding investor expectations comfortably lower, bu
? >> actually, our business is fairly good. i know in reported u.s. dollars, our revenue dropped slightly, a couple of percent. that's really because the u.s. dollar strengthened. it was an exchange rate conversion. we do a lot of business in europe. when we converted those euro into dollars this year, we got a lot fewer dollars than we did the previous year. when you compare the two years, we actually grew our revenue, but not in terms of dollars. in terms of euros, they went up. once we converted into dollars, they went down. our business is actually fairly good. our software business is growing. our -- the part of our hardware business we care about the most, the engineered systems, are growing at over a 100% rate. >> you've been a serial acquirer. the growth has shown through all the deals you have done. where are the holes, where are the opportunities to grow? are you poised to do another deal soon? >> we're not planning any major acquisitions right now. we're really focused on the fact that over the last seven or eight years we've re-engineered all of our applications for the cloud.
as well as the commercial bank in the u.s. have they achieved that status? we know that the company was the international name to know in banking. did they lose that? >> they did for a while, obviously. i think if you look at the last earnings report, it does show they have international traction. you know, the resignation, to me, maria -- and everyone is going to have their theories. i don't think the conference call will really clear it up. in my view, it's probably a compensation issue. vikram, as you mentioned in your conversation with him, said, hey, remember i'm the guy that was paid $1. i think vikram remembers he was paid $1 as well. he comes out with a good earnings report. at this point, he's probably saying, in my view, pay me like my peers. if that's not the case, time for a transition. >> that was my analysis after speaking to him. he said it was my decision, my idea, we've accomplished what we should accomplish, now it's time to go. i just felt like there was something more there. he probably went head to head over his pay package with o'neill. >> sure. he's being a lo
or selling now. that's all ahead on the "closing bell." >>> welcome back. my next guest says the u.s. can address both economic and energy issues by exporting natural gas. jim tish is president and ceo of lowe's corporation. he's also the former director of the federal reserve bank in new york. jim, always great to see you. thanks so much for joining me tonight. >> good to be with w you, maria. >> i want to ask you, we've been talking about the fiscal cliff and how 80 ceos got together to send a letter to send it to congress to say, we need to act urgently in terms of cutting america's debt. would you be poised to sign that? are you aware that this has become a real urgent story for corporate america? how do you feel about it? >> i signed the letter, maria. so, yes, i think that the debt level of the united states government is a major problem and want fiscal cliff is a major problem and it has to be dealt with very quickly by the politicians in washington. >> i mean, it is extraordinary it's business once again raising the red flag, and we're still waiting on our so-called leadership to
% higher. on a positive note, our u.s. growth continues to be strong. as larry noted, we had a great quarter on the product front, gaining traction in a number of critical areas. so before i dive into the financials, i just want to give you a bit more detail on the new $8 billion annual mobile run rate that larry mentioned. the new run rate is different from the one we gave you a year ago, and more specifically, last year it included only our gross revenue for mobile ads, but this year in this new number, we also added the gross revenue from the mobile sales of google play content and finally, it also includes the consumer spending on the play apps. so with that -- >> all right. management there at google going through line by line in terms of the quarter. we're going to get back to it once the q&a begins and certainly continue following it offline. when something happens that could be quite impactful, we'll take you back there live. we'll take a short break and get back to the google call. up next, are solid numbers on mortgage refis masking what would be a last lucklackluster marke
going to see the ocean and the bay meeting, because the water levels are rising so much? of course, u.s. markets are closed through at least tuesday. we know that for a fact. there is an effort to reopen on wednesday but it's really what we see. what is the reality that will happen and what does four days of no trading in the united states mean for investors? bob pisani is with me along with cnbc contributor of "destination wealth management" and aaron hodges. what do you think the impact will be when trading does resume? you've got to believe certain people sitting on positions, either wanted to unload those positions or get new ones? what would you expect wednesday if, in fact, trading does resume? >> well, you know, it's interesting. one would think there would be this pent-up demand to trade. but i think given the fact that there's going to be such outages and so much disruption on the east coast, i expect volume to be pretty light. if volume is pretty light and we have companies actually beginning to report their earnings, which many today and tomorrow will be reporting wednesday,
the cme group will reopen its u.s. equity endex futures and options markets. tomorrow it will resume normal hours of the trading floor. joining me now in an exclusive interis the cme chairman. we appreciate you spending the time with us today. >> thanks, maria. our thoughts and prayers are with you and everyone in new york. >> thank you so much. tell us what worked last night. what with did go operational? what kind of trading are you expecti ining tonight? >> you know, everything pretty much worked. we have with invested tremendously in our back-up facilities. we were up and running with no problems whatsoever. we didn't see a tremendous amount of movement in the market, which i think is actually a good thing for what's gone on in the world right now. so we saw the s&p go from roughly 1407 to as low as 1399 and come back up as high as 1411 when we closed up this morning. we are seeing some activity. the volume i would say is just a little bit off of what it would normally be. >> so as the savvy trader you have been in the past, what would you expect once trading resumes tomorrow? do
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